Vol. 337 No. 9 (2026)
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/9/5684
Method of predictive control of LED system thermal regime for improving their energy efficiency and reliability
Relevance. The thermal regime of light-emitting diode devices is one of the key factors determining their energy efficiency, reliability, and service life. In the context of the development of intelligent power systems, the digitalization of the energy sector, and increasing requirements for energy efficiency, the development of intelligent methods for controlling the operating modes of light-emitting diode systems as elements of modern energy technology complexes is becoming particularly important. An increase in the temperature of the light-emitting diode chip and structural elements of a light-emitting diode device leads to degradation of luminous flux, increased electrical losses, and accelerated wear of components. Traditional methods of thermal regime control do not provide the required quality of temperature regulation under conditions of pronounced thermal inertia and physical constraints, which necessitates the use of more advanced intelligent approaches to controlling the thermal regime of light-emitting diode devices. Aim. To develop and investigate a predictive control method for the thermal regime of light-emitting diode devices based on an electrothermal model that takes into account physical constraints and ensures improved stability and efficiency of system operation. Methods. A three-node electrothermal PCB model described in state-space form. The model parameters were identified based on experimental data obtained using temperature sensors. Model Predictive Control algorithm was applied for control, taking into account constraints on temperature, current, and the rate of its change. The model was discretized using the Euler method with a time step of 60 s. The effectiveness was evaluated using Root Mean Squared Error, maximum temperature, settling time, and oscillation amplitude metrics. Results. The application of Model Predictive Control significantly improved the characteristics of the thermal regime. The maximum temperature was reduced from ≈89 to ≈77°C (by ≈12°C), the overshoot was reduced from ≈9 to ≈2°C, the settling time was reduced by a factor of 2–3 (from ≈90–100 to ≈30–40 s), and the amplitude of temperature oscillations was reduced by approximately 5 times. The Root Mean Square Error of the model does not exceed 8.21°C for the board, which confirms its adequacy. In addition, the amplitude of current oscillations was reduced by a factor of 8–10, while its maximum value was reduced from ≈0.93 to ≈0.74 A. The obtained results confirm the prospects of applying predictive control methods in energy-efficient lighting systems and intelligent power supply systems aimed at reducing operational losses and improving equipment reliability.
For citation: Rakhmonov I.U., Toirov M.T., Ushakov V.Ya., Niyozov N.N., Khakberdiev T.Z. Method of predictive control of LED system thermal regime for improving their energy efficiency and reliability. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Assets Engineering, 2026, vol. 337, no. 9, pp. 122–135. http://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/9/5684
Keywords:
electro-thermal modeling, light-emitting diode devices, thermal regime, predictive control, thermal dynamics, temperature control, LED systems, thermal inertia, current control, control optimization, system constraints, energy efficiency, heat transfer
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