Vol. 337 No. 9 (2026)
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/9/5443
Probabilistic assessment of Vasyugan and Tyumen Formations permeability within Surgut oil and gas region
Relevance. The need to combine deterministic methods with stochastic ones to increase the reliability of three-dimensional models. Aim. To determine the filtration indicators of reservoir rocks using a stochastic method in order to increase the reliability of geological and hydrodynamic models based on probabilistic methods for analyzing the results of laboratory core studies and production geophysical data. Methods. Method that contains algorithms for transforming actual data at their shortage in order to obtain a complete picture of filtration indicator for 2 to 6 classes. A probabilistic method for calculating the presence of a reservoir in a single cell of a three-dimensional model. Results and conclusions. This paper presents the examples of final plots obtained by calculating the probability of reservoir presence in a cell of a 3D geological model. From these plots, divided by reservoir permeability class, a weighted average probability attribute was obtained for each class separately. The resulting attributes were interpolated, thereby showing maps of the probability of reservoir class presence within the studied area. This visualization helps trace the dynamics of filtration properties within the rocks of the target formations and their correlation with regional faults. The authors established the relationship with faults at the boundary of the Surgut oil and gas region, namely, a deterioration in reservoir properties. This feature is presumably related to mechanical rock crushing that developed during rock formation, as well as the precipitation of mineral components contained in migrating fluids, which contributes to a decrease in permeability. Moreover, a deterioration in reservoir properties is observed within the Tyumen Formation compared to the Vasyugan Formation.
For citation: Strakhov P.N., Mardanov N.R. Probabilistic assessment of Vasyugan and Tyumen Formations permeability within Surgut oil and gas region. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Assets Engineering, 2026, vol. 337, no. 9, pp. 103–111. http://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/9/5443
Keywords:
probabilistic assessment, stochastic methods, Vasyugan formation, Tyumen formation, Surgut oil and gas region, Permeability, porosity, core sample
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