Vol. 337 No. 9 (2026)
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/9/5308
Driving factors and forecasting maximum water stages of the Ob river near Barnaul
Relevance. The need to improve flood forecasting methods for non-stationary runoff-forming factors. Aim. To analyze the factors forming maximum levels under the heterogeneity of hydrometeorological series and to develop the model for forecasting maximum flood levels. Methods. Comprehensive geographical and hydrometeorological analysis, statistical methods (correlation and regression analysis), mathematical modeling. Results and conclusions. The relationship between the maximum flood levels on the Ob River near Barnaul and the indicators of main flow-forming factors for the period 1966–2020 is analyzed. The non-stationarity of hydrological series was taken into account. Мaterials from the Russian Hydrometeorological Service, ERA-5 reanalysis and V.P. Galakhov’s regional precipitation model using the orographic correction to the velocity of vertical movements were taken as the initial information. V.P. Galakhov’s model showed the best result (R=0.61–0.87) for describing winter precipitation. It was found that due to climate changes the role of incoming factors (snow reserves, liquid precipitation) of the water balance decreased. After the 1980-s the depth of soil freezing is a limiting factor in the formation of floods on the Upper Ob. In some years, winter weather conditions were atypical for the region, leading to low soil freezing (<50–60 cm) and low snowmelt runoff coefficients. In this case, maximum flood levels did not reach critical even in snowy years. If the freezing depth is more than 60 cm in foothill and plain part of basin, the runoff from these areas is formed regardless of the freezing depth. A physical-statistical model for forecasting of the highest flood levels was developed for two scenarios: when freezing depth exceeds 60 cm and when soil freezing is absent (freezing depth less than 60 cm). For the first scenario the most significant predictors: winter precipitation amounts, precipitation during the high water period and moisture of basin expressed as the minimum water levels in preceding winter low-water period. For the second scenario winter precipitation explained 90% of variability of maximum levels. The NSE was 0.77 for the first scenario and 0.9 for the second. Medium-term forecasting for maximum flood levels in 2024–2025 was justified.
For citation: Samoilova S.Yu. Driving factors and forecasting maximum water stages of the Ob river near Barnaul. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Asset Engineering, 2026, vol. 337, no. 9, pp. 24–34. http://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/9/5308
Keywords:
Ob River, maximum water stages, forecast, сlimate change, snow water equivalent, orographic correction to the speed of vertical air movements, reanalysis, water absorption capacity, soil freezing
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