Vol. 337 No. 1 (2026)
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/1/5307
Analysis of metrological support for reconstructions of stratospheric ozone according to dendrochronological data for neuroprognosis
Relevance. The problem of reducing stratospheric ozone levels and the interest in its past changes are related to the increase in the dose of ultraviolet radiation in the short-wavelength range reaching the Earth's surface. Reconstruction and prediction of long-period fluctuations of the studied parameters can be carried out using the multiple regression method based on the density of annual rings of conifers. In order to expand the experimental data base, exploratory work is being carried out to measure new characteristics of growth rings, as well as the mathematical apparatus of data preprocessing techniques is being refined, the relationships of bioindicators with atmospheric parameters are being analyzed, and new models for their prediction are being developed. Reconstruction of historical changes in atmospheric characteristics can be considered in the context of the prospects of artificial restoration of forest resources. Aim. Comprehensive analysis of the problems of metrological support for the reconstruction of stratospheric ozone based on dendrochronological data (width and density of annual rings) in Dobson units, taking into account modern achievements and developments after 2015. The study is based on the analysis of dendrochronological data from key regions of Northern Eurasia, where the impact of ozone changes on woody vegetation is most pronounced. Subjects. Pinus sibirica (Siberian cedar), Picea obovata (Siberian spruce), Larix cajanderi (Cajander larch), Pinus sylvestris (common pine). Geographical regions: Altai (50–52° n.l., 85–90° e.l.), Siberia (60–65°n.l., 90–105° e.l.), Ural Meridian (50–70° n.l., 60° e.l.). Methods. Dendrochronological method, singular spectral analysis, econometric methods of time series analysis, data mining, simulation modeling. Results. A comprehensive analysis of the problems of metrological support for stratospheric ozone reconstruction based on dendrochronological data led to the following results. The effectiveness of dendrochronological indicators such as the width of annual rings and maximum density of late wood significantly correlate with instrumental data on ozone content (r= –0,7 and p<0,01). This confirms their suitability for quantitative reconstructions. The advantage of multi-proxy approaches, consisting in the integration of parameters, such as the width of the annual ring, the maximum density of the ring, as well as climatic indicators with measurement data of similar parameters by other methods, can significantly improve the accuracy of reconstructions. The coefficient of determination (R2) increases from 0.64 to 0.78, and the total uncertainty decreases by 29%, from 16.1 to 11.4 DU. The main contribution to the total uncertainty is made by model (40%) and calibration (28%) factors. The instrumental errors in measuring the total ozone content are significantly lower than the modeling error and amount to less than 5%.
Keywords:
stratospheric ozone, dendrochronology, annual ring width, maximum wood density, Dobson units, measurement uncertainty, proxy data, multi-proxy approaches, calibration
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