Vol. 337 No. 6 (2026)
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/6/5274
Net pay volume probabilistic assessment approaches for lithologically screened traps using the example of Achimov deposits in the northern part of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District
Relevance. When conducting a probabilistic assessment of the initial geological reserves with complicated structure, such as the Achimov deposits, it is necessary to take into account a set of uncertainties related to their geological structure. Aim. Achimov deposits probabilistic assessment, taking into account a set of uncertainties related either to sedimentary bodies mapping or geophysical methods technical limitations. Methods. The article describes an integrated technique of multivariate two-dimensional modeling, which is adapted to account for uncertainties at three main stages of mapping: structural plan construction, effective volume prediction, and fluid-saturated volume prediction, using the example of a field in the Nadym district of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Results and conclusions. The proposed methodological approaches for 2D probabilistic assessment made it possible to obtain maps reflecting the main features of the geological structure, particularly, facies differentiation & lithological heterogeneity in the lateral direction. The obtained maps can be used for conducting analytical calculations for assessing development strategy in further stages of the asset assessment.
For citation: Perepletkin I.A., Zaboeva A.A., Muzraeva B.Yu. Net pay volume probabilistic assessment technique for lithologically screened traps using the example of Achimov deposits in the northern part of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Assets Engineering, 2026, vol. 337, no. 6, pp. 7-24. https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/6/5274
Keywords:
probabilistic assessment, Achimov deposits, multivariate modeling, lithologically screened deposits, geological risks and uncertainties
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