Vol. 337 No. 6 (2026)
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/6/5267
Increasing the reliability of the forecast of structure resource potential due to scientific justification of trap filling factor
Relevance. The need to minimize the risks associated with prospecting, appraisal, and exploration drilling, and to increase the efficiency of geological exploration works. The approach presented is an example of rational planning and it ensures consistently high-performance indicators of work in the region – the success rate of prospecting drilling and the confirmability of the resource base. Aim. To establish patterns of filling hydrocarbon traps to increase the reliability of resource forecasts on promising uplifts, as well as to search for objects for additional exploration of hydrocarbon deposits being developed. Objects. Prepared, identified structures, industrial hydrocarbon deposits with an uncertain fluid contact. Methodology. Methodological approaches to increasing the reliability of forecasting the resource potential of promising structures through scientific justification and application of the coefficient of filling hydrocarbon traps by the method of analogies using methods of mathematical statistics. Results. The authors have identified zonal patterns of the degree of trap filling with oil for the main oil and gas production areas of the Perm Krai, substantiated and tested the methodological approaches to forecasting the position of fluid contacts of promising structures and deposits of fields with the accepted conditional calculation level. The authors carried out reassessment of the resource base, an audit of the fund of prepared and identified structures; for already discovered deposits with an uncertain fluid contact (including those not taken into account by the State Balance) – a forecast of expected reserves growth. Proposals for prospecting and additional exploration were prepared for geological exploration sites.
For citation: Nikitina M.V., Kostareva K.V., Filimonchikov A.A., Soloviev S.I. Increasing the reliability of the forecast of structure resource potential due to scientific justification of trap filling factor. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Assets Engineering, 2026, vol. 337, no. 6, pp. 122-132. https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2026/6/5267
Keywords:
hydrocarbon trap filling factor, assessment and confirmability of resources of prospective structures, prospecting and appraisal drilling, additional exploration of oil fields, efficiency of geological exploration, Perm Krai
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