Relevance. Global climate change is intensifying hydro-meteorological extremes, posing significant threats to vulnerable regions. North-Central Vietnam, with its unique climatic and geographical characteristics, is particularly susceptible to shifts in rainfall patterns, yet it remains a relatively under-researched area. Understanding recent trends in rainfall and drought is critical for developing effective regional adaptation strategies. Aim. To provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of rainfall and meteorological drought in the North-Central Vietnam over the recent 25-year period (1998–2022). Specifically, it sought to quantify rainfall trends, characterize drought events, and investigate the paradoxical relationship between them. Methods. We analyzed monthly rainfall data from four representative meteorological stations. Trends were detected using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and their magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator. Meteorological drought was characterized using the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Results. A statistically significant increasing trend in annual rainfall was found at two of the four stations, with rates up to 26.9 mm/year. Paradoxically, despite this wetting trend, the region experienced three major drought intervals (1999–2000, 2003–2004, and 2015–2016), including several events of extreme severity (SPI<–2.0). This coexistence of increasing total rainfall with severe droughts indicates a shift towards a more volatile climate regime, challenging conventional water resource management and highlighting the need for strategies that address both flood and drought risks.

For citation: Tran Thi Tuyen, Dang Truong An. Spatiotemporal dynamics of rainfall and drought in North-Central Vietnam: trends, variability, and implications under a changing climate. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Assets Engineering, 2026, vol. 337, no. 4, pp. 84-91.