Link for citation: Chilinger L.N., Latin O.V. Forecast of the demand of solid municipal waste polygons based on the analysis of open data of commissioning and volume of waste removal to disposal facilities. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Аssets Engineering, 2023, vol. 334, no. 6, рр.47-56. In Rus.

The relevance of the research is caused by the study of the general need to allocate land plots for organization of solid municipal waste polygons in the future in the context, of the new waste management system being introduced in the Russian Federation, in which waste disposal facilities (solid municipal waste polygons) are not a priority. The main aim is to determine the expected results of the measures taken within the framework of the new waste management system in relation to accommodation facilities and to calculate the total area of the land plot that should be formed to accommodate the volume of solid municipal waste in 2024. Objects: volumes of formation, removal and closure of closed municipal waste, land area and population. Methods. To predict the amount of training, the method of statistical analysis of fluctuations in time series, its extrapolation, expansion of the dynamic range with alignment according to the analytical formula, estimation of the method error and determination of confidence intervals are used. The essence of the method lies in the assumption that the patterns or tendencies of change of the studied object (phenomenon) in the past will persist for a certain period of time in the future. Analytical and comparative analysis of data on the proposed commissioning of facilities for the processing solid municipal waste; mathematical calculation of the area of a land plot for placing a certain volume of solid municipal waste were applied in  the paper. Results. Based on the forecast of waste formation, commissioning of waste management infrastructure facilities until 2024, conclusions are drawn about the prospects for the demand for land plots for organizing polygons. The volume of municipal solid waste will increase and in 2024 may grow by 5,46 % compared to the level of 2019. Based on the analysis of data and information on the expected commissioning of infrastructure facilities, it is assumed that by 2024 their relative capacity will be redistributed in favor of utilization enterprises by 6,9 %. Despite the expected increase in the disposal of solid waste by 2024, an increase in the disposal capacity is projected by 107,5 million m³/year. For the annual placement of additional volumes of solid municipal waste until 2024, the state must allocate an additional 22171,9 hectares of land for organizing disposal facilities.